水库论坛(Lucas整理版)
Contents
水库论坛(Lucas整理版) .................................................................................................................. 1
水库是啥？ ............................................................................................................................. 13
基础篇 ............................................................................................................................................ 21
水库羊年贺禧 毁三观，竖新生 #1............................................................................ 21
大道随行，不忘本心 #10 ..................................................................................................... 28
经济学 #20............................................................................................................................. 35
无风险套利 #30 ..................................................................................................................... 41
大纲的困扰 #40 ..................................................................................................................... 47
经济学第一定律 #50 ............................................................................................................. 55
生产与抢劫 #60 ..................................................................................................................... 61
政治学第一定律 #70 ............................................................................................................. 69
经济学第二定律 #72 ............................................................................................................. 77
经济学第三定律 #75 ............................................................................................................. 88
邪恶的媒体 #80 （修改版） ............................................................................................... 98
回报率的真相 #90 ............................................................................................................... 105
你赚我息，我赚你本 #100 ................................................................................................. 111
回报率的误解 #110 ............................................................................................................. 116
万世不移的财富 #120 ......................................................................................................... 124
职业炒家（一） #130 ......................................................................................................... 133
职业炒家（二） 实业之殇 #140 ................................................................................. 142
职业炒家（三） 正义感 #150 ..................................................................................... 149
职业炒家（四） 买进 #160 ......................................................................................... 158
职业炒家（五） 升值 #170 ......................................................................................... 167
温州炒房团 #180 ................................................................................................................. 178
职业炒家（六） 卖出 #190 ......................................................................................... 189
炒楼业的忌讳 #192 ............................................................................................................. 197
论娼妓，芭蕾，征服，和暴政 #200 ................................................................................. 202
市场营销入门 #210 ............................................................................................................. 212
Re-Sale为什么这么难 #220 ................................................................................................ 220
如何运营一家企业 #230 ..................................................................................................... 229
无中生有的高阶 #240 ......................................................................................................... 243
上海楼市的三分天下 #250 ................................................................................................. 253
屌丝时代（上） #260 ......................................................................................................... 260
屌丝时代（下） #270 ......................................................................................................... 267
迎接一个波澜壮阔的大时代 #280 ..................................................................................... 274
新城不是希望 #290 ............................................................................................................. 280
从来不存在“土地财政” #82 ................................................................................................ 287
屌丝购房手册（一）#300 ................................................................................................... 294
屌丝购房手册（二）以力破巧 #310 ............................................................................ 302
屌丝购房手册（三） #320 ................................................................................................. 312
处房情结（一） #330 ......................................................................................................... 321
处房情结（二） #340 ......................................................................................................... 329
处房情结（三） 增量和存量 #350 ............................................................................. 337
新城之莘庄模式 #360 ......................................................................................................... 344
劳动人民购房手册 #370 ..................................................................................................... 354
外国人购房手册 #380 ......................................................................................................... 364
小众市场 #390 ..................................................................................................................... 374
沉默的上海人 #400 ............................................................................................................. 382
沉默的上海人（二）#410 ................................................................................................... 389
老公房之政治特权 #420 ..................................................................................................... 398
世界上最好的房型 #430 ..................................................................................................... 405
世界上最好的房型（2）#440 ............................................................................................. 412
买卖是买卖，租赁是租赁 #450 ......................................................................................... 421
炒房客的流派 #460 ............................................................................................................. 429
炒房客的流派（二） #470 ................................................................................................. 441
炒房客的流派（三）法租民宿派 #480 ........................................................................ 450
炒房客的流派（四）药单流 #490 ................................................................................ 463
炒房客的流派（五）周转流 #500 ................................................................................ 472
炒房客的流派（六七）疯魔流和转租流 #510 ............................................................ 483
炒房客的流派（八）失败者 #520 ................................................................................ 490
流派终结者 #530 ................................................................................................................. 497
列兵和阶层 #540 ................................................................................................................. 507
价格（一） 三维价格 #550 ......................................................................................... 519
价格（二） 搭桥 #560................................................................................................. 532
价格（三） 框架 #570................................................................................................. 540
城市规划导论 #580 ............................................................................................................. 549
城市规划导论（二） 不可预测 #590 ......................................................................... 565
城市规划导论（三） 可以预测 #600 ......................................................................... 574
城市规划导论（四） 板块轮动 #610 ......................................................................... 583
城市规划导论（五） 重心 #620 ................................................................................. 592
楼市的季节性现象 #630 ..................................................................................................... 602
三重顶 #640......................................................................................................................... 611
售出清单 #650 ..................................................................................................................... 621
宏观调控卷 序章 #660 ............................................................................................... 629
中二病 #670......................................................................................................................... 638
第一次宏观调控（上） #680 ............................................................................................. 649
第一次宏观调控（下） #690 ............................................................................................. 658
营业税的外围世界 #700 ..................................................................................................... 667
所得税和土增税 #710 ......................................................................................................... 675
杀死商铺 #720 ..................................................................................................................... 684
土增税对工商业的破坏（上） #730 ................................................................................. 693
土增税对工商业的破坏（下） #740 ................................................................................. 701
第三轮宏观调控（上） #750 ............................................................................................. 709
第三轮宏观调控（下） #760 ............................................................................................. 717
二阶经济学 #770 ................................................................................................................. 723
“不给钱”的经济适用房 #780 ............................................................................................. 732
绝望的县官 #790 ................................................................................................................. 741
免费的才是最贵的 #800 ..................................................................................................... 750
7090理想世界 #810 ........................................................................................................... 758
差异化信贷 #820 ................................................................................................................. 765
准备金率和地下钱庄 #830 ................................................................................................. 775
加息岂能降房价 #840 ......................................................................................................... 782
从来不存在四万亿 #850 ..................................................................................................... 792
限贷的危害 #860 ................................................................................................................. 800
车匪路霸话限购 #870 ......................................................................................................... 808
限购的毒药 #880 ................................................................................................................. 817
20160325新政的分析 #890 ............................................................................................... 824
交易成本有多高（上） #900 ............................................................................................. 834
交易成本有多高（下） 压价效应 #910 ................................................................... 844
重压之下，生存之道 #920 ................................................................................................. 854
炒楼业黄金时代 #930 ......................................................................................................... 863
减调控 #940......................................................................................................................... 872
吃毒药涨内力 #950 ............................................................................................................. 880
既得利益集团 #960 ............................................................................................................. 887
香港楼市崩盘始末（上） #970 ......................................................................................... 896
香港楼市崩盘始末（下） #980 ......................................................................................... 905
上海楼市的真实走势（一） #990 ..................................................................................... 914
上海楼市的真实走势（二） 双线 #1010 ................................................................... 924
上海楼市的真实走势（三） 幻相 #1020 ................................................................... 934
上海楼市的真实走势（四） 观望 #1030 ................................................................... 943
逼空式上涨 #1040 ............................................................................................................... 955
京沪楼市何时见顶（上） #1050 ....................................................................................... 965
京沪楼市何时见顶（下） #1060 ....................................................................................... 977
上海楼市的实际价值 #1070 ............................................................................................... 986
泡沫分水岭 #1080 ............................................................................................................... 995
赔率胜负手 #1090 ............................................................................................................. 1004
假设调控取消 #1100 ......................................................................................................... 1014
帝国的砒霜房产税 #1110 ............................................................................................. 1023
不征房产税，凭什么为什么 #1120 ................................................................................. 1032
2016.10月调控政策的分析 #1125................................................................................... 1043
2016.10月调控政策的分析（市场经济版） #1126 ....................................................... 1057
学区房的大风险 #1130 ..................................................................................................... 1067
2016.11.28上海调控政策分析 #1135 ............................................................................. 1087
上海楼市往事 #1140（旧版） ......................................................................................... 1095
2001年 ....................................................................................................................... 1095
2002年 ....................................................................................................................... 1105
2003年 ....................................................................................................................... 1113
上海楼市往事 ..................................................................................................................... 1123
上海楼市往事（1）#1140 ......................................................................................... 1123
上海楼市往事（2）#1150 ......................................................................................... 1133
上海楼市往事（3）#1160 ......................................................................................... 1144
上海楼市往事（4）#1180 ......................................................................................... 1158
上海楼市往事（5）#1190 ......................................................................................... 1170
上海楼市往事（6）#1200 ......................................................................................... 1184
白左上台 ..................................................................................................................... 1198
上海楼市往事（8）#1240 ......................................................................................... 1205
上海楼市往事（9）#1250 ......................................................................................... 1214
我们的仇家遍天下 #1170 ................................................................................................. 1224
ABC单 #1210 ..................................................................................................................... 1235
近期分答问题荟萃 #1220 ................................................................................................. 1249
2017.03.17北京调控政策分析 #1260 ............................................................................. 1262
xyz单 #1270 ...................................................................................................................... 1272
我也很绝望啊 #1280 ......................................................................................................... 1282
职业炒家会杀向雄安么 #1290 ......................................................................................... 1296
999年358天 #1300 ......................................................................................................... 1308
降维攻击 #1310................................................................................................................. 1320
漳州炒房团，请不要再造谣了 #1320 ............................................................................. 1331
我是怎样一眼识破假流水的 #1330 ................................................................................. 1343
yevon_ou对2017楼市的判断（2017/4/18） ................................................................. 1355
近期小密圈问题荟萃 #1340 ............................................................................................. 1359
没有合同不公平 #1350 ..................................................................................................... 1369
慢节奏和快节奏 #1360 ..................................................................................................... 1379
笨蛋，外储是单向膜 #1370 ............................................................................................. 1388
合伙买房手册 #1380 ......................................................................................................... 1399
你的产证，不是你的房子 #1390 ..................................................................................... 1409
中国楼市的Hard模式 #1400 ........................................................................................... 1417
小密圈问题荟萃五月（上）#1410 ................................................................................... 1429
小密圈问题荟萃五月（下）#1420 ................................................................................... 1440
当商业升到满级 #1430 ..................................................................................................... 1449
楼市的生命周期（上） #1440 ......................................................................................... 1459
楼市的生命周期（下） #1450 ......................................................................................... 1471
烂盘你就喊出来 #1460 ..................................................................................................... 1479
家乡的毒药酒 #1470 ......................................................................................................... 1488
可以做空房产么 #1480 ..................................................................................................... 1498
创业指南ABC #1490 .......................................................................................................... 1508
空置税可以降低房价么 #1500 ......................................................................................... 1518
买卖贵，还是租赁贵 #1510 ............................................................................................. 1530
筑基篇 ........................................................................................................................................ 1540
Section 2 筑基卷总纲 #2000 ............................................................................................ 1540
发财的数量级 #2010 ......................................................................................................... 1548
爬阶基础概念 #2020 ......................................................................................................... 1557
业绩的上限 #2030 ............................................................................................................. 1567
更多更早的金钱 #2040 ..................................................................................................... 1575
焚城烈火征粮队 #2050 ..................................................................................................... 1583
第一个一千万 #2060 ......................................................................................................... 1592
楼市的回报有多高 #2070 ................................................................................................. 1600
长线负债率 #2080 ............................................................................................................. 1608
准备借钱 #2090................................................................................................................. 1617
信用卡是什么 #2100 ......................................................................................................... 1627
信用卡的正确用法 #2110 ................................................................................................. 1636
开始办卡 #2120................................................................................................................. 1645
积分流基础知识 #2130 ..................................................................................................... 1653
撸卡积分流 #2140 ............................................................................................................. 1663
借款流基础概念 #2150 ..................................................................................................... 1671
空当接龙 #2160................................................................................................................. 1680
信用卡之雕虫小道 #2170 ................................................................................................. 1692
信用卡之分期 #2180 ......................................................................................................... 1701
信用卡之旁门左道 #2190 ................................................................................................. 1712
银行的脸谱（上）#2200 ................................................................................................... 1721
银行的脸谱（下）#2210 ................................................................................................... 1729
信用卡的战略意义 #2220 ................................................................................................. 1738
从小数点揭示的财富信息 #2230 ..................................................................................... 1747
资金的分层（上） #2240 ................................................................................................. 1754
资金的分层（下） #2250 ................................................................................................. 1766
炒家的资金成本 #2260 ..................................................................................................... 1773
利率与房价的精算法 #2270 ............................................................................................. 1782
贷款选择的精算法 #2280 ................................................................................................. 1790
近期新型贷款产品精算 #2285 ......................................................................................... 1796
零首付精算法 #2290 ......................................................................................................... 1811
评估公司一二三 #2300 ..................................................................................................... 1820
网签和贷控 #2310 ............................................................................................................. 1829
抵押贷款一二三 #2320 ..................................................................................................... 1840
截断和再抵押 #2330 ......................................................................................................... 1848
对敲 #2340 ........................................................................................................................ 1858
贷款的外围世界（上） #2350 ......................................................................................... 1866
贷款的外围世界（下） #2360 ......................................................................................... 1875
一些基础财务函数 #2370 ................................................................................................. 1884
浅谈现金管理入门 #2380 ................................................................................................. 1896
高利贷知识入门 #2390 ..................................................................................................... 1912
借钱的人情世界 #2400 ..................................................................................................... 1921
短借的场合 #2410 ............................................................................................................. 1930
针刺效应 #2420................................................................................................................. 1940
杂食与多核 #2430 ............................................................................................................. 1951
杂食与多核之读后感 #2440 ............................................................................................. 1961
财富追赶问题 #2450 ......................................................................................................... 1971
我们需要多少年还清贷款 #2460 ..................................................................................... 1977
贷款应该是收入的多少倍 #2470 ..................................................................................... 1982
公积金的用法 #2480 ......................................................................................................... 1990
流动性的黄昏 #2490 ......................................................................................................... 2001
炒房中的保险 #2500 ......................................................................................................... 2010
航母理论 #2510................................................................................................................. 2017
房地产市场的二朵乌云（上）#2520 ............................................................................... 2026
房地产市场的二朵乌云（下）#2530 ............................................................................... 2036
支离破碎的北京市场 #2540 ............................................................................................. 2052
装修基础知识概念 #2550 ................................................................................................. 2080
凤变冰入门 #2560 ............................................................................................................. 2090
浅谈炒楼2N定理 #2570 .................................................................................................. 2117
你的第一第二套房子 #2580 ............................................................................................. 2127
获得家人的支持 #2590 ..................................................................................................... 2141
五套六套走向职业化 #2600 ............................................................................................. 2150
七套八套高成本资金 #2610 ............................................................................................. 2159
九套十套山穷水尽 #2620 ................................................................................................. 2169
2N之通关 #2630 ............................................................................................................... 2177
《下一站·重庆》序言 #2640 ............................................................................................ 2188
《下一站·重庆》（上） #2650 .......................................................................................... 2198
《下一站·重庆》（中） #2660 .......................................................................................... 2206
《下一站·重庆》（下） #2670 .......................................................................................... 2216
《下一站·重庆》（下）#2670 ............................................................................................ 2222
我对重庆的态度 #2680 ..................................................................................................... 2227
婆罗门的世界 #2690 ......................................................................................................... 2240
异大陆的审美观 #2700 ..................................................................................................... 2253
重庆实战手册 #2710 ......................................................................................................... 2266
重庆楼市地段分析 #2720 ................................................................................................. 2278
重庆楼市地段分析2017版 #2730 ................................................................................... 2289
重庆部分楼盘点评 #2740 ................................................................................................. 2301
二线城市的切入点 #2750 ................................................................................................. 2316
《楼市秘籍》速成篇 #2760 ............................................................................................. 2325
《楼市秘籍》速成法备注 #2770 ..................................................................................... 2329
股市骗局（一） 增长 #2410(#2910) ........................................................................ 2345
股市骗局（二） 回报率 #2420(#2920) .................................................................... 2351
股市骗局（三） 估值 #2430(#2930) ........................................................................ 2362
中介篇（一） #2440(#2940) ............................................................................................ 2370
中介篇（二）房源 #2450(#2950) ............................................................................... 2381
中介篇（三）欺骗 #2460(#2960) ............................................................................... 2388
中介篇（四）买入 #2470(#2970) ............................................................................... 2400
明悟篇 ........................................................................................................................................ 2410
套利与套险 #3120 ............................................................................................................. 2410
中国的财富 #2110(#3210) ................................................................................................ 2420
向上爬 #2120(#3220) ........................................................................................................ 2428
权力啊，北京 #2130(#3230) ............................................................................................ 2437
论库存的理解和分析 #2140(#3240) ................................................................................ 2443
番外篇 ........................................................................................................................................ 2450
论儒·法·禅宗·基督自治及道教的复兴 #F10 .................................................................... 2450
社会因何而存在 ......................................................................................................... 2451
儒家 ............................................................................................................................. 2456
法·禅宗 ........................................................................................................................ 2468
基督自治 ..................................................................................................................... 2475
神的战争 ..................................................................................................................... 2487
道教的复兴 ................................................................................................................. 2501
侧记 ............................................................................................................................. 2509
一个马基雅弗利主义者和自由主义的决裂 #F20 ........................................................... 2514
我为什么支持同猪结婚 #75 ............................................................................................. 2542
我对人口学的粗浅理解 #F85 ........................................................................................... 2551
我对人口学的粗浅理解（二） 蛮族的崛起 #F86 ................................................... 2562
汉城就是上海的明天 #F90 ................................................................................